So, I'm going to begin this post with an undergraduate reference for the second month in a row. But, trust me, there's a good reason for that.
You've almost certainly seen the news emerging from the recent UCAS June 30 deadline data; specifically the 2.2% growth in international applications to the UK, with a (record) 10% increase from China and a 23% increase from Nigeria as well as... a 14% increase from the USA. As you can probably tell from my title, I think the latter potentially tells a bigger story.
An obvious question to ask is: what does this look like at postgraduate level – especially for Masters, where we've seen a rise and fall in UK interest across 2022 to 2024. Well, we don't have complete application data for PGT yet, but we do have our own data for how prospective students are searching at scale. So let's look at that.
Well, to use a phrase I've probably over-deployed in presentations recently, it's very much a tale of two timelines here.
This is what year-on-year share of search looks like for the UK and for the USA, over the past 12 months or so:
I'll spare you extended exegesis of a stacked bar chart, but what we're essentially seeing here is:
Growth for the USA building ahead of the November election (remember, this was the period of a potentially uncertain result, not to mention Trump himself suggesting that all international students should receive Green Cards)
Drops in interest for the UK during the same period (the July election improved the mood music, but didn't actually roll back any of the 2023-24 policy changes)
2024 ends with falls for the USA as the new administration is confirmed and begins to critique universities and international education. UK interest recovers slightly during this period
Things really diverge in 2025 as UK interest builds and US interest falls, with a nearly opposite trend through April, May and June – correlating almost exactly with some of the most emphatic challenges to US universities and study abroad
The obvious takeaway is that a pivot away from the USA clearly is a factor in postgraduate search right now – just as it probably is in that UCAS application data.
Indeed, we see a 'swing' from the USA to the UK here too: interest in UK Masters study from US audiences is up around 40% between April and June (and down 30% for 'domestic' study in the USA itself).
Below I've visualised the growth in UK interest from the 12 biggest audiences for UK study across Keystone platforms. Here I'm looking at a quarterly view (for growth in Q2 2025 compared to 2024). Remember that we also track monthly trends in our Pulse reports.
The bars are ordered by the overall size of the audience the represent, but depict the growth in UK search interest for that audience. So, India is the biggest audience for UK study and is growing at 61% in terms of its search interest (the share of all Indian searches that are for the UK). Bangladesh is the fourth biggest, but its relative interest in the UK is growing a lot faster.
As always, there's a caveat around China which will be under-represented in our data relative to the actual size of that audience. That said, the story being told here is fairly encouraging, I think. Yes, India and Nigeria are still the biggest audiences and South Asia predominates, but audiences are also growing from further afield.
This is true for destinations too, incidentally – something I've covered in more detail on the main Keystone blog.
I'm glad you asked. It's something of the elephant in the room when looking at these (very positive!) trends for the UK, but it's an elephant that isn't trumpeting in the data (I hope you see where I was going there).
We've been running a couple of questions regarding the white paper in the Keystone Pulse survey since shortly after the publication in May. Specifically, we've been asking people if the proposals for a shorter Graduate Route (from 24 to 18 months at Masters level) or the potential for a university to be rated 'red' (based on BCA metrics) would have a significant effect on their UK study plans.
And, basically, they wouldn't. Neither of them.
For the shorter Graduate Route:
20% of audiences surveyed in May said this would make them 'much less likely' to study in the UK
16% of audiences surveyed in June said this would make them 'much less likely' to study in the UK
So, yes, the (already low) impact of the proposal has actually dropped.
Meanwhile, it turns out that only 18% of prospective international students say they'd be 'much less likely' to consider studying at a 'red' university (under the proposed RAG-rating).
This is encouraging and, I think, successfully deploys Keystone's combination of search and survey data to understand why UK interest might be so healthy despite the white paper.
But there are caveats.
For the Graduate Route, we don't know when the policy will be introduced (it needs parliamentary approval) or who it will apply to – particularly whether new entrants will be impacted, or whether existing students will receive a shorter post-study-work entitlement if their graduation extends beyond a certain point. Either way, it's very possible audiences will feel more concerned once the plans become more concrete.
For the RAG-rating, we don't know how the results will be communicated or if they'll even be all that visible to students at all. Personally, I wonder whether a negative rating will really harm a university with an established international reputation and whether a green rating might actually help elevate a less visible institution. Hopefully that's not just misplaced confidence.
For now, things are looking more positive for the 2025/26 intake. For UG and for PG too.