Quick highlights:
-
A majority of prospective international postgraduates remain committed to their study abroad plans, with UK-bound audiences showing some of the most robust intentions.
-
Survey data for alternative or 'second choice' destinations indicates how international interest might shift in future, with Germany ahead of both Australia and the USA.
-
Interest in alternative routes to international education such as TNE and online delivery appears to be high, with the latter increasing in popularity amongst audiences considering Australia and the USA.
International education is unpredictable at the moment. In many destinations around the world, studying abroad is more expensive, more difficult to obtain a visa for, or simply less predictable than a few years ago. Often, a mixture of factors are at play, impacting universities and, of course, prospective students. And the impact is keenly felt at postgraduate level where a majority of enrolments (particularly in countries like the UK) are at Masters level or above.
Our unique combination of search and survey data at Find A University gives us an insight into both how prospective students are behaving and how they are thinking in the face of these changes.
We regularly cover search trends both here and over at Keystone, explaining how prospective student behaviour is changing and what that might mean for the sector going forwards. Most recently, for example, my colleague Mark found that audiences might be becoming more regional, while back in June, I explored how and where UK universities may be able to diversify their international recruitment.
But if audiences are searching differently, are they also planning differently? To answer that, I'm going to turn to our Pulse survey.
How committed are international audiences to their study plans?
Note this chart doesn't include those respondents who selected 'Apply as normal'; a figure hovering between 81% and 91% in this selection of study destinations. So, most international audiences still intend to pursue education in their preferred destination at the next available opportunity.
But that leaves anywhere between 9% and 19% who are considering a change to their plans.
Some are considering deferring for now and scoping out the lay of the land, perhaps in a year, before committing to that same destination. But more likely than not, if a prospective student isn't 100% confident in their initial plans, they are instead considering an alternative study destination in the near-term.
Audiences seeking to study in the UK are amongst the most committed to their study plans, with only 11% actively considering changing their study abroad intentions. For Australia, Germany, and the USA, however, that figure sits between 15% and 19%.
Effectively, the current pipeline remains fairly committed overall, but they are considering other options, which tallies with what’s happening in search. So what other options might they be considering?
Will students study abroad elsewhere?
We already know from the above chart that anywhere from 9% to 19% of prospective international audiences might be considering a change from their preferred study destination. But where might they be looking instead?
Once a Pulse respondent has told us where they plan to study, we also ask them where else they might consider. Below we see the results, again split by study destination:
Colours here relate to a respondent's preferred destination and the destinations on the x-axis are the alternatives they might consider. So, for example, 24% of those whose first choice is the UK, say they would consider Canada as an alternative. We have then stacked these percentages to see which are the top alternative destinations, with Canada leading over on the right. Note that the chart only gives the top 5 alternatives for each destination.
Canada and the UK come out particularly well here, with both appearing as top five potential alternatives for each of the tracked first-choice destinations. Understandably, they do particularly well as alternatives when the first choice is another English-speaking country.
Germany also does very well, emerging as the third most popular alternative destination overall (in this view) ahead of the both Australia and the USA.
Several European destinations appear as alternatives, predominantly for neighboring countries or those that share a language (i.e. Belgium is a popular alternative for those whose first choice is either France or the Netherlands).
It is notable that the USA, the largest importer of international students globally, only appears as a top five alternative for the UK, Canada, and Germany. Similarly, Australia is only considered a popular alternative for the other members of the 'Big 4' and the Netherlands.
This data helps us see (and perhaps even tenatively predict) how international destination choices might shift as political and economic barriers persist.
It's important to remember, though, that the majority of people in our Pulse survey aren't currently looking to switch their intended destination.
Will students study abroad differently?
Of course, there are other ways to adapt international study plans that may not be as drastic as choosing a completely different destination or abandoning overseas study entirely.
We're also seeing some interesting trends in delivery preferences, particularly for online study:
Trends differ depending on that first-choice destination, but it's immediately apparent that US and Australia-bound audiences are the most likely to consider online study and are becoming more so compared to 2025. These also happen to be among the destinations least likely to see audiences committed to their plans.
The UK and Canada are not far behind, but the tracked European destinations see lower and lessening levels of online interest (with the Netherlands something of an outlier). This is perhaps to be expected with European destinations consistently scoring more positively in our data for perceptions of culture and leisure opportunities and various European destinations, including Germany, offering comparatively cheap or even free international education.
What about TNE?
Trans-national education is becoming increasingly prominant in various national education strategies and prospective students are unsurprisingly becoming more aware of this option. But will they choose it?
Here's a reminder of what I found when exploring this topic recently:
Interest in branch campus study is relatively high among audiences actively seeking Masters study abroad. Over 60% would at least consider the option and 35% express active interest.
These results differ by audience, however. US, Chinese, and Indian audiences are the most likely to consider it as an option, with almost half of the former two saying they would take the opportunity. Whereas Pakistani, Nigerian, and Nepalese audiences are among the least interested.
Clearly, despite the difficulties faced by prospective international students, there is still a large appetite to study abroad. It might simply be that studying abroad looks increasingly different.
