Pulse Monitor: Are International Students Already Changing Their Study Plans?

We've already explored the recent announcements on UK student visas and considered the likely effects on PG study (spoilers: big for PGT) but we're now starting to see some of the impact coming through in our Pulse survey data.

Will there be a rush for September?

From January 2024 which international students on taught degrees will no longer be able to bring dependents to the UK, or transfer to a skilled worker visa without first completing their course.

But it's not totally clear whether this affects:

• New visas issued from January 2024 – in which case a 23/24 student could be joined by dependents any time during their visa<

• New courses beginning from January 2024 – in which case a January / Spring semester 23/24 student wouldn't be able to bring or be joined by dependents (though a September / Autumn semester student would)

• Retrospective changes to all student visas – in which case current 23/24 students have limited time left to be joined by dependents

The government's own announcement simply states that the new reforms will come into effect for students starting in January next year (sounds like 1 or 2, but could still be 3).

Based on our Pulse data, it looks like prospective students are also assuming 1 or 2:

The Autumn 22 trend is consistent, with interest gradually slowing as the deadline approaches (international students obviously need to plan and apply further ahead).

The Autumn 23 line sees a much sharper fall, perhaps driven by concern over the rumoured visa announcements in March and April. We then see the increase in May, which is unique to 23. This is sustained in the (early) June data so that interest in Autumn is currently six percentage points above the previous cycle.

It seems reasonable to link the 23 trend to the visa announcements – I'll update again when we have more June data.

Will online interest grow?

Another hypothesis is that international students with dependents might give up on physically studying in the UK and do so from home instead. This doesn't necessarily fit the 'bogeyman' of study as an 'immigration backdoor' but it does make some sense for students with genuine caring responsibilities (our data has helped demonstrate that these changes disproportionately affect women.

There's no evidence of a swing to online so far though:

Anything else?

We'll see if next month's Pulse updatesees a sustained 'September swing'. I'll also be keeping an eye on other possible impacts, such as a pivot to PGR interest (research courses aren't affected by the dependent changes).

As ever, questions and suggestions are very welcome.